New Delhi, Sept. 14 -- The southwest monsoon could be heading towards its seasonal retreat in parts of northwest India, but weather models point to the possibility of one more significant spell of rain across eastern and central India later this month. A depression, or potentially a stronger tropical cyclone, may form over the Bay of Bengal between September 24 and 28, according to fresh projections.
The system is currently being monitored as a developing possibility, with considerable uncertainty over whether it will form, how strong it could become and what path it may eventually take. Current model forecasts indicate an initial northwestward movement towards Odisha, followed by a possible track across south Chhattisgarh and Bihar.
The system could then turn towards Northeast India, potentially bringing rainfall to a broad area during the closing phase of the monsoon season.
The latest projection from the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) for September 26 shows a well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal region, along with a large zone of rainfall. The model also indicates the possibility of intense rain close to the system's core.
However, meteorologists have cautioned that the forecast remains subject to major changes as the system is yet to take shape. Weather systems over the Bay of Bengal can change their strength and direction significantly as atmospheric conditions evolve. A more reliable assessment of its intensity and track is expected once the system develops.
The potential late-month rain comes as the monsoon begins showing signs of withdrawal from parts of northwest India. A large anticyclone is forecast to develop over northwest India and extend into the northern Arabian Sea after September 25. The circulation could bring drier weather and aid the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from large parts of north, west and central India.
The first major stage of the retreat could begin over northwest Rajasthan between September 15 and 18.
This could set up a contrasting weather pattern across the country, with the monsoon gradually pulling back from northwest India while rainfall activity potentially increases again over eastern and northeastern regions.
If the Bay of Bengal system develops along the lines currently projected, parts of India could therefore see another widespread spell of monsoon rain in the final days of September, even as the seasonal withdrawal gets underway elsewhere.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.