Stockholm/New Delhi, June 8 -- India's military expenditure rose sharply in 2025 and its nuclear arsenal expanded modestly, according to the latest yearbook released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which also warned that the world is entering a period of renewed nuclear competition marked by rising geopolitical tensions, weakening arms control mechanisms and growing reliance on nuclear weapons. The report places India as the world's fifth-largest military spender with defence expenditure of USD 92.1 billion in 2025 and estimates that the country now possesses around 190 nuclear warheads, up from 180 previously. SIPRI said India continued to modernise its strategic forces while focusing increasingly on long-range capabilities aimed at strengthening deterrence against China, even as its long-standing rivalry with Pakistan remains central to security planning.
The SIPRI Yearbook 2026, released on Monday, said India's military spending increased by 8.9 per cent from the previous year. Only the United States, China, Russia and Germany spent more on defence during 2025.
According to the report, the United States remained the world's largest military spender with expenditure of USD 954 billion, accounting for 33 per cent of total global military spending despite a 7.5 per cent decline from 2024. China ranked second with spending of USD 336 billion, followed by Russia at USD 190 billion. India's expenditure of USD 92.1 billion placed it fifth globally.
SIPRI estimated that global military expenditure reached a record USD 2.9 trillion in 2025, marking the eleventh consecutive annual increase and accounting for 2.5 per cent of global GDP. The 15 largest military spenders together accounted for 80 per cent of worldwide military expenditure, amounting to USD 2.304 trillion.
The report also highlighted the deteriorating global security environment. SIPRI said several regional flashpoints remain at risk of escalating into larger interstate conflicts and referred to the military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May 2025 as an "unusually severe military crisis".
The institute noted that India and Pakistan exchanged intense cross-border fire between May 7 and May 10, 2025. It also pointed to the growing role of cyber warfare, saying the two countries integrated cyber operations into armed conflict openly for the first time during the crisis.
SIPRI said the brief conflict saw India strike Pakistani air and missile bases believed to have nuclear-related functions. Despite the intensity of the confrontation, both countries took measures to prevent escalation into a broader conflict.
The report estimates that India's nuclear stockpile stood at approximately 190 warheads as of January 2026, compared with Pakistan's estimated 170 warheads. SIPRI said India "once again slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2025 and continued development of new types of nuclear delivery systems".
India's nuclear modernisation programme is increasingly focused on developing long-range weapons capable of reaching targets across China. While Pakistan continues to influence strategic planning, China's growing military and nuclear capabilities are playing a larger role in shaping India's force development.
SIPRI noted that India is strengthening all three components of its nuclear triad, comprising land-based, air-based and sea-based nuclear delivery systems. The report highlighted progress in technologies such as Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), which allow a single ballistic missile to carry multiple warheads capable of striking different targets.
The institute also pointed to advances in canisterised missile systems that improve survivability, mobility and launch readiness. India's missile inventory includes the Prithvi-II and Agni-I short-range missiles, Agni-II and Agni-III medium-range systems, and the longer-range Agni-IV and Agni-V missiles. The newer Agni-P missile is viewed as a more accurate and survivable platform, while development of future long-range systems is believed to be continuing.
A significant aspect of India's nuclear modernisation is the strengthening of its sea-based deterrent. SIPRI said India may now occasionally deploy a limited number of nuclear warheads aboard ballistic missile submarines during peacetime patrols.
India's nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, led by INS Arihant, are intended to provide assured second-strike capability. These vessels carry submarine-launched ballistic missiles such as the K-15 and K-4, while future systems including the K-5 missile remain under development.
The report said a survivable sea-based deterrent is becoming increasingly important as missile capabilities in both China and Pakistan continue to evolve.
Pakistan, meanwhile, continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material during 2025. SIPRI said these developments suggest Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could expand further over the coming decade.
The institute observed that while India has concentrated on building survivable long-range deterrent capabilities and strengthening its second-strike posture, Pakistan has invested heavily in tactical nuclear weapons and shorter-range systems intended to offset India's conventional military advantages.
Globally, SIPRI estimated that the nine nuclear-armed states, namely the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel, possessed approximately 12,187 nuclear weapons at the start of 2026. Of these, around 9,745 were held in military stockpiles and considered potentially available for operational use.
The report said about 4,012 warheads were already deployed with missiles and aircraft, while between 2,100 and 2,200 remained on high operational alert.
Although the overall number of nuclear weapons worldwide continues to decline, SIPRI said this trend is largely the result of the United States and Russia dismantling retired warheads. At the same time, most nuclear-armed states are modernising or expanding their arsenals, raising concerns that global stockpiles could begin increasing again in the coming years.
SIPRI Director Karim Haggag warned that greater dependence on nuclear weapons in national security strategies could increase the risk of miscalculation. "Influential voices, including some world leaders, are advocating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attack by a hostile state. But making national defence and security strategies dependent, or more dependent, on nuclear weapons could significantly increase nuclear risks," he said.
Haggag added that advances in weapons technology, the erosion of arms control frameworks and rising geopolitical tensions were increasing the dangers associated with nuclear weapons. He also noted that the conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan had challenged traditional assumptions about nuclear deterrence.
The report further warned that transparency surrounding nuclear arsenals is declining, while diplomatic channels for crisis management are weakening. SIPRI researcher Matt Korda said reduced transparency and deteriorating communication mechanisms were making nuclear crises more unpredictable.
The yearbook also noted a broader shift in international conflict management over the past two decades, with approaches increasingly moving away from a liberal model of peacemaking towards what it described as a more power-based and transactional framework. While the number of countries experiencing armed conflict fell slightly from 50 in 2024 to 49 in 2025, SIPRI said large-scale violence continued across several regions, underscoring the increasingly volatile global security landscape.
Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Millennium Post.