Bangladesh, March 26 -- The latest round of reported negotiations between the United States and Iran-described by Donald Trump as “good and productive”-has once again injected cautious optimism into a region long accustomed to cycles of escalation and disappointment. Financial markets responded positively to the suggestion of diplomatic progress, yet seasoned analysts remain wary. That skepticism is grounded in experience: previous claims of breakthroughs have often unraveled, leaving regional actors-especially the Gulf states-to absorb the fallout.

At the heart of the negotiations lies the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which a significant share of the worlds energy supply flows. Any disruption in...