Bangladesh, April 30 -- Lebanon stands at a familiar yet increasingly unforgiving crossroads. Once again, the country is being drawn into the gravitational pull of regional conflict, external bargaining, and internal paralysis. But this moment is distinct in one crucial way: the margin for ambiguity has evaporated. The question is no longer whether Lebanon can maneuver diplomatically between competing powers-it is whether the Lebanese state actually possesses the authority to commit to anything at all.

At the heart of this dilemma lies a simple but decisive truth: no Lebanese leader, including President Joseph Aoun, can credibly guarantee the implementation of any international agreement while Hezbollah retains its independent military c...