Bangladesh, April 3 -- The killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, widely known as “El Mencho,” was celebrated in both Mexico and the United States as a decisive blow against organized crime. Political leaders, including Donald Trump, framed the operation as a major victory in the long-running war on drugs. Yet beneath the rhetoric lies a stubborn and uncomfortable reality: removing cartel leaders rarely dismantles criminal networks. Instead, it often fragments them, intensifies violence, and leaves drug supply chains largely intact.

This contradiction sits at the heart of what analysts call the “kingpin fallacy” – the mistaken belief that criminal organizations function like rigid hierarchies, where eliminat...