Bangladesh, April 9 -- There is a familiar rhythm to American overreach in the Middle East: a burst of confidence, a cascade of miscalculations, and then—almost inevitably—a retreat dressed up as strategy. The latest chapter, authored by Donald Trump in the form of a hurried two-week ceasefire with Iran, fits this pattern with unsettling precision. What is being marketed as prudence looks, on closer inspection, like capitulation. And what is described as de-escalation may well be remembered as abdication.

Start with the central illusion: that coercion without consequence could bend Tehran to Washingtons will. The administration entered the conflict with a breezy confidence that now reads less like strategy and more like wishf...