India, Sept. 18 -- The Central Electricity Authority's roadmap points to investment opportunities exceeding Rs.9.15 lakh crore in transmission up to 2032, including more than 1.91 lakh circuit-km of new lines and roughly 1,270 GVA of transformation capacity during FY23-FY32. Jefferies estimates transmission capex could rise from Rs.2.7 lakh crore over FY22-FY26 to Rs.5.9 lakh crore during FY26-FY30, while Citi estimates HVDC equipment alone could represent a Rs.1.6 lakh crore opportunity.

The investment question this article raises is no longer simply whether transmission demand will grow. It is whether companies can convert this unusually large pipeline into orders, revenue, margins and cash flows fast enough to justify already elevate...