India, July 12 -- The picture that emerges amid war is a Russia that is constrained, still capable and genuinely disruptive.

Take a look at the numerous press reports in Western capitals about the future of Russia and you'll find there are two narratives that come up time and time again. Either Russia is on the verge of collapse, or enough pressure will talk Vladimir Putin into moderation. Both are appealing precisely because they promise an ending to the current confrontation. But both are wrong. They rest on the same premise that squeezing an authoritarian system reliably pushes it towards an exit. It doesn't.

It's well known that a number of significant pressures are currently bearing down on Putin's Russia. Demographic decline, fisc...