India, April 12 -- It is hard to foresee the future, especially when the present is this fluid. The Gulf Cooperation Council today stands at a genuine fork in its history, pulled simultaneously towards deeper unity and deeper fracture. To understand which path is more likely, one must resist the temptation of a single narrative and integrate, however uncomfortably, both narratives: convergence or further fragmentation.

THE CASE FOR CONVERGENCE

The forces pushing the GCC towards greater integration are not trivial, as a shared threat perception has a way of concentrating minds. Iran's regional ambitions, the slow unravelling of Yemen and Sudan, Turkey's assertive posture, and an Israel whose reach now extends into Gulf diplomacy-these ar...