India, April 12 -- The National People's Congress (NPC) has long functioned as China's most elaborate stage for political theatre. This spring, the leadership leaned heavily on that tradition, using the NPC to project stability at a time of mounting uncertainty. The centrepiece was the release of the 15th Five-Year Plan, a sweeping document that charts China's development path through 2030. Its emphasis on technological innovation and self-reliance was designed to reassure both domestic and international audiences that the Party remains firmly in command of the nation's trajectory.

But the reality beneath the spectacle is far less secure. Industrial overcapacity continues to distort China's economy, producing friction with trading partne...