India, Aug. 2 -- The scale of the disruption is hard to overstate. By some industry estimates, well over half of Russia's refining capacity has been knocked offline at various points, slicing millions of barrels a day out of supply.

For four years, the war in Ukraine has felt like a machine stuck in one gear: brutal, grinding, and static. That machine has just lurched forward, and not in Russia's favour. In a matter of days, Ukraine has landed blows that reach deeper into Russian territory and further into Russian revenue than at any point since the invasion began. The country that once exported fuel across the globe is now scrambling to import it. That single fact says more about where this war is headed than any map of frontline territ...