India, Aug. 1 -- Labour campaign strategists believe their mayoral candidate, Bev Craig, secured north of 40 per cent of the first-round vote in the high-stakes Greater Manchester by-election, according to exclusive political evaluations. While the strong showing cements a commanding lead over challenger Sian Astley of Reform UK, the figures leave Craig just shy of the absolute 50 per cent threshold required to claim an outright victory on the first count, forcing the contest into a dramatic second-round runoff under the supplementary vote system.

Electoral insiders close to the campaign confirmed that internal tracking data reflects substantial backing across urban centres and inner-ring boroughs following Andy Burnham's transition to W...