Nigeria, May 11 -- I've been pondering an argument about the 2027 presidential election that it could help settle. Both ADC and NDC currently seem to be on a similar footing, without solid, nationwide structures or established foot soldiers.

Recall that in the last election, INEC's official results placed Atiku second and Obi third. Analysts attribute that to PDP's stronger political structure and the number of state governors who backed Atiku.

If Atiku and Obi emerge as the flag bearers of ADC and NDC respectively, they would be starting from a more equal position, without the advantage of sitting governors or a large bench of heavyweight politicians. This creates a unique opportunity in 2027 to reassess their true popularity on a mor...