Between 9, Sept. 23 -- The market spent Monday morning doing what it rarely does during wartime: pricing in peace. By noon, the Federal Reserve had taken most of that away.

30 a.m. and 10:17 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.7%, Brent crude held below $101 on Iran diplomacy optimism, and the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.93%. Then the Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller took the podium at the New York Economic Club.

At 10:20 a.m., Waller told a breakfast audience of portfolio managers and institutional bankers that the Fed would not cut rates before the end of 2026. Not "unlikely." Not "data dependent." He used the word "not." He added that the September decision to hold at the current federal funds rate of 5.75% was "a ...