WASHINGTON, Aug. 20 -- The number that reaches an American worker is not the one in the survey. Employers are projecting a median health care cost increase of about 10 percent for 2027, the fastest growth in roughly fifteen years, and prescription drug costs are forecast to rise faster still at 11.5 percent. Neither figure is a bill anyone receives. What arrives is a slightly larger deduction, month after month, described on a payslip in a way that explains nothing.

The underlying direction is corroborated outside the employer market. KFF's analysis of preliminary 2027 rate filings found insurers putting the combined cost of medical care and prescription drugs up 10 percent for next year, against an 8 percent average over the preceding f...