On Monday, Sept. 23 -- A central bank raised borrowing costs just five days ago, and silver is climbing anyway. That is the uncomfortable arithmetic facing traders on Monday: the Federal Reserve hiked its target to 3.75 to 4.00 per cent on September 16, drove XAG/USD to a session low of $63.50 per ounce, and handed bears every macro reason they needed. Silver has since clawed back nearly the entire loss. On September 21, the IBJA benchmark settled at Rs.241 per gram, and the answer to why lies not in any rate calculation but in a meeting scheduled for Thursday in Washington.

Monday's silver market is not selling; it is pausing.

The reason silver is holding above the post-hike floor has one name: the September 24 summit in Washington bet...