New Delhi, July 21 -- the alliance is running critically short of them.

NATO has acknowledged the scale of the problem directly. "Limited stocks represent one of the biggest problems NATO faces in its effort to build up ammunition stockpiles," the alliance stated, according to the Journal's reporting, elevating what had seemed like a procurement footnote to the level of a core strategic vulnerability. The admission is striking because it shifts the debate beyond how many shells Europe is producing and into whether the continent has the basic industrial inputs to produce them at scale at all.

The arithmetic behind the shortage is unforgiving. European nitrocellulose production currently runs at roughly 10,000 metric tons per year. Reachi...