New Delhi, July 2 -- Iranian oil trade data has long been inconsistent because much of it routes through intermediaries designed to obscure origin. The direction is not in dispute. Iran is selling more oil at higher prices than it could two weeks ago.

The US Treasury issued a sweeping sanctions waiver on June 22 authorizing Iranian oil sales through August 21 - the same date the 60-day MoU window closes. The structural alignment is deliberate. Washington's negotiating leverage over the final agreement includes the ability to reimpose those sanctions at the deadline; Tehran's incentive to reach terms before August 21 includes the revenue stream the waiver has already produced. The Doha talks this week produced movement on an additional $6...