New Delhi, Aug. 12 -- PARIS - The buffer that has kept global oil markets from fracturing under the weight of the Middle East conflict has, in the space of five months, nearly run out.

a sustained collapse in observed inventories driven almost entirely by oil held on tankers disappearing from global accounting as transit routes through the Gulf and the Red Sea became unreliable.

"The global oil balance is now expected to show a deficit of 1.8 mb/d in 3Q26, more than double the estimate of around 800 kb/d in last month's Report," the IEA said.

After a brief improvement in June, observed global oil inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July. The decline was driven almost entirely by a decrease in oil held on tankers: crude that shoul...