New Delhi, June 14 -- how fast could Brent crude fall to $70?

The number is not idle speculation. The Islamabad Agreement framework, with senior US negotiators en route to Geneva, has given markets their clearest signal yet that the conflict strangling one of the world's most important energy chokepoints is entering its final act. Bloomberg's analysis, widely cited among energy traders this week, estimates that a genuine reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent down 15 to 20 percent - from the current level of around $90 a barrel to somewhere near $70 to $75, erasing the entire geopolitical premium that the Iran conflict built into crude prices since March.

What would drive that crash is not complicated. More than 110 million ...