India, June 8 -- The ceasefire lasted five days. Then came the strikes on Beirut, then the missiles into Iran, then the news that Israeli aircraft had hit the Mahshahr petrochemical complex for the first time since the April pause. By Monday morning in European markets, Brent crude was trading above $97 a barrel - up more than four percent on the day - and every analyst note in circulation was grappling with the same uncomfortable conclusion: OPEC+ no longer moves this market.

On Sunday evening Israel launched a fresh wave of strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, breaching a ceasefire that Lebanon and Israel had announced on June 3 following negotiations in Washington. Iran responded the same night with a salvo of missiles at Israeli te...