New Delhi, July 2 -- it declared the war over.

Brent crude's August futures fell to $70.82 per barrel on London's ICE exchange, their lowest since February 27, 2026, the day before US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities opened the conflict, after Qatar announced that indirect US-Iran talks were producing "positive progress" toward a permanent memorandum of understanding. The move completed the unwinding of a 38-percent war premium that had taken the market from that February baseline to a peak above $126 on April 30, the moment crude had fully priced in a prolonged standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.

What the price has not yet caught up with is what is actually happening inside Hormuz. Vessel crossings stood at 40 on Tuesd...