New Delhi, Aug. 11 -- In Chaman, the Pakistani town on the border with Spin Boldak, traders complained that their earnings nearly ran down to zero on a daily basis. By the Pak-Afghan Joint Chamber of Commerce's own accounting, the annual bilateral trade, which was valued at $2.5 billion, has dropped to around $10 million. That fall is fairly easy to account for. However, it is not yet clear why none of the multiple ceasefires since October 2025 have been able to last more than a few weeks.

The standard response is that both governments lack will for peace. The convenient explanation is that the peace cannot come from the agreements that they continued to sign, because structurally they are not capable of that.

Failure of Ceasefire

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