New Delhi, March 4 -- History rarely announces itself politely - it erupts, and the world scrambles to interpret the smoke. In West Asia, long-brewing tensions have crossed the invisible line into open confrontation. What follows will test not just armies and alliances, but judgment itself.

Markets Earliest Barometer

Israel has attacked Iran. The United States has thrown its weight behind Israel. The world had long sensed it was coming. I felt its imminence when the Nifty fell sharply at 3:01 PM on Friday and the Dow Jones dropped over 500 points later the same day. Markets are often the earliest barometer of geopolitical consequence. Money moves before missiles do.

Within hours, Iran confirmed that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been kill...