France, March 25 -- Insee expects growth of 0.2 percent in both the first and second quarters, down from 0.3 percent previously. At the same time, inflation is forecast to climb above 2 percent in the spring after running at less than 1 percent in February.

The Middle East conflict, which began on 28 February, pushed oil prices to around $100 a barrel, compared with an average of 63 dollars at the end of 2025. The impact has been quickly felt at petrol stations.

"The surge in hydrocarbon prices would translate in France, as elsewhere in the world, into a marked rebound in inflation, which would go above 2 percent during the spring," Insee said in its updated outlook.

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