Nigeria, Nov. 2 -- A territory can register alarming scores across multiple indicators and still leave a fundamental question unanswered: are the forces undermining state sovereignty operating independently, or have they begun reinforcing one another to create a self-sustaining alternative order?

This distinction matters. A state may experience economic extraction by armed groups, territorial insecurity and the weakening of public legitimacy simultaneously. Yet the presence of these conditions does not necessarily mean they have combined into a resilient system capable of reproducing itself despite government intervention.

The challenge is to establish not merely whether sovereignty is weakening, but whether the forces responsible for t...