Nigeria, April 13 -- Africa is again staring down the barrel of an external shock. The Middle East crisis marks the third major supply disruption in less than a decade, following COVID-19 and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In each case, an external trigger exposes structural vulnerabilities, and economies plunge into distress.

The timing couldn't be worse. Many African economies have spent the past two years rebuilding buffers badly eroded during the 2022 shock. Continent-wide, fiscal consolidation has been uneven but largely positive and central banks have acted to contain inflation. In cases such as South Africa and Egypt, medium-term debt profiles had improved, and reserves were modestly rebuilt.

But the continent remains poorly i...