Nigeria, April 4 -- I. The squares and stadiums have spoken. Eagle Square, swollen with eight thousand delegates, a sea of voices affirming the ruling party's strength, yet beneath the chants, fissures widen North against South, factions against factions, each calculating the arithmetic of succession.

II. At the Velodrome, the PDP gathers, three thousand strong, but shadows loom. The speeches echo with nostalgia, the promises sound rehearsed, and defections scatter like dry leaves in harmattan winds. A party once towering, now diminished, its grassroots confidence eroded, its relevance questioned.

III. Then Abuja hosts another gathering, smaller in size, louder in consequence. Nine senators cross the aisle, their footsteps resound in th...