India, May 12 -- The headlines from West Asia and Eastern Europe carry the same uncomfortable subtext: the price of crude oil is no longer determined solely by supply and demand. It is shaped by sanctions, shipping disruptions, fragile ceasefires, and the calculations of producer cartels that often find higher prices congenial. Brent crude has held close to USD 95 a barrel for several months, and experience from 2008 and 2022 suggests that such geopolitical premia tend to persist.

For India, which imports more than 85 per cent of the crude oil it consumes, this is not an abstract concern. Every USD 10-per-barrel increase in crude prices typically raises pump prices by about '4.5 per litre, placing pressure on household budgets. Yet retai...