India, March 6 -- The $63/bbl estimation for average Brent crude price for 2026 is unlikely to see any significant upside as the Strait of Hormuz closure would be only temporary and global oil market oversupply should limit oil price rises, Fitch Ratings said.

Fitch said the strait is not formally closed but vessels are increasingly avoiding it given the risk of attack by Iran or its proxies. Oil majors have halted shipments for safety reasons, and insurers are cancelling war risk cover for vessels.

"We do not expect significant upside to our December 2025 assumption of an average Brent oil price of USD63/bbl for 2026," Fitch said, adding it expects this effective closure of the strait to be temporary.

Also, global oil market oversuppl...