Punjab, Oct. 15 -- India's exports to China grew 40.7 per cent in the first nine months of 2026. The trade deficit with China grew 20.7 per cent over the same period, to 105.93 billion dollars. Both facts are true, and the second one is why the first does not matter yet.
The arithmetic
Chinese customs data, released on 14 October, shows Indian exports to China at 19.26 billion dollars and Chinese exports to India at 125.19 billion. Two-way trade was 144.45 billion dollars, up 25.4 per cent.
A 40.7 per cent rise on a 19 billion base adds about 5.6 billion dollars. A 23.3 per cent rise on a 125 billion base adds about 23 billion. India can grow its exports to China at twice China's rate and still lose ground every quarter, because the base...