Punjab, Oct. 16 -- Bitcoin reaching USD100,000 before year-end carries an implied probability of approximately 29% on Polymarket and 30% on Kalshi, according to market readings reviewed on 14 October. WazirX's Q4 outlook examines what could change those expectations as monetary tightening weighs against demand through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Polymarket assigns a 65% probability to Bitcoin reaching USD90,000 before year-end. The odds fall to 44% for USD95,000 and 29% for USD100,000. These contracts concern Bitcoin touching the specified price before the deadline. They do not predict its closing price on 31 December.
The gap gives traders a useful starting point. A recovery towards USD90,000 has majority backing on that market. ...