Stock market outlook, July 4 -- Historical trends suggest July has been one of the strongest months for the Nifty 50, raising expectations that the benchmark index could continue its positive momentum this year. Over the last 25 years (2001-2025), the Nifty has delivered positive returns in 18 out of 25 instances, translating into a 72% success rate. The index has generated an average return of 2.19% in July, making it the third-best performing month after December and November, according to Jahol Prajapati, Equity Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.

While the historical pattern is encouraging, Prajapati cautioned that seasonality alone should not be treated as a trading strategy. Instead, it reflects recurring catalysts such as the on...