New Delhi, Nov. 10 -- On 1 February, the finance minister will present the budget for an economy that has done better than most expected, under conditions worse than anticipated. This resilience should give policymakers room to manage the shock while pressing ahead with deeper reforms.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter. Private consumption contributed almost four percentage points, buoyed by the goods and services tax (GST) 2.0 reforms. Micro indicators agree: vehicle registrations are rising and bank credit growth is near 20%.

The global environment calls for vigil. Brent crude oil was about $70 a barrel before the West Asia war began in late February and rose above $115 after September's East-West p...