New Delhi, April 12 -- As 2026 began, the case for gold seemed almost scripted. The probability of a global recession appeared slim, the US Federal Reserve was expected to cut interest rates - the debate was only about timing - and inflation globally and in India appeared manageable.

In that environment, gold became the consensus "crowded trade": the hedge against tariff wars, global uncertainty and the structural weakening of the US dollar.

Then the rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran escalated into a full-blown war in West Asia - and gold, instead of rallying, stumbled.

Nippon India ETF Gold BeES, India's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF), fell from Rs.131.60 on 27 February 2026 - the day before the conflict began - to R...