New Delhi, April 3 -- With no end in sight to the West Asia war, concerns are rising over inflation, interest rates and GDP growth in India. As part of the Money Guru series, Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis breaks down the potential impact on the economy, household finances and job markets, and assesses whether recession risks are real or overstated.

At a theoretical level, inflation could rise, but much depends on how long the war lasts, how high crude oil prices go and how much of this increase is passed on to consumers. So far, the government reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel, absorbing much of the crude price increase. The key question is how long this can continue.

If crude oil prices return to $80-90 per barre...