New Delhi, Sept. 9 -- Late May in New Delhi, a 20th floor room at hotel Le Meridien was thick with polite scepticism.

A few journalists gathered to hear how Honda Motor Co. planned to claw its way back in India. The stakes couldn't have been higher: the parent automaker was reeling from its first-ever global loss, bruised by billions in write-offs. Across the table, the management team of Honda Cars India Ltd rolled out a familiar revival script-a decade-spanning playbook featuring 10 new models in four years, a captive finance division to grease consumer loans, and an expanded lineup of hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs).

It sounded ambitious. But when asked to put a number on this grand comeback-to name the actual sales target for th...