New Delhi, April 14 -- India could be headed for one of its driest monsoons in years in 2026 with Skymet predicting rainfall at 94% of the long-period average, below the normal 96-104% range. The India Meteorological Department has pegged it at at 92% of the 50-year average.

The El Niño effect raises the odds of poor rainfall, with 70% probability of below-normal or drought-like conditions-higher than that in 2023.

While forecasts broadly align with expectations, reliability remains a concern. Both Skymet and the IMD have frequently missed rainfall intensity, with Skymet's accuracy slipping in recent years.

A weak monsoon carries significant economic risks. Agriculture, which depends heavily on rains, supports nearly 40% of India'...