New Delhi, May 6 -- Global trade statistics often capture the light of aggregate growth while blurring the shadows of ground-level uncertainty. India's latest trade data released by the commerce ministry presents a picture of remarkable resilience. Total exports in 2025-26 reached $860.1 billion, growing 4.2% from a year earlier.

Yet, underneath these resilient macro statistics lies a precarious micro reality for the country's small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that power nearly 50% of its exports and are mostly family businesses.

We conducted a survey of 461 SME family and non-family business exporters across 14 cities over October-December to study trade confidence, not as a single measure, but as a balance between optimism and risk-...