New Delhi, May 17 -- India will be entering its 2026 monsoon season under the shadow of one of the most alarming climate signals in years, as a potentially historic El Niño event forms in the Pacific Ocean and threatens to disrupt rainfall across large parts of the country from August onwards.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first long-range forecast for 2026 on 13 April, warning that the southwest monsoon, which runs from June to September and serves as India's primary rain season, is likely to deliver below-normal or deficient rainfall this year.

The driver behind that forecast is a rapidly strengthening El Niño event that climate scientists say could rival the catastrophic cycles of 1997 and 2015.

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