New Delhi, April 15 -- As investors gauge the full impact of the West Asia war on crude oil-led inflation, another problem seems to be emerging. The India Meteorological Department and private forecaster Skymet Weather Services predict rainfall in the June-September monsoon season may fall short of the long-term average. El Niño conditions could develop and weaken the monsoon. Subdued rainfall threatens India's inflation comfort.

The southwest monsoon is critical for irrigation in India. Below-normal rainfall can hurt kharif crop production. This hits agricultural output, farmer incomes and rural consumption, which was earlier slated to improve led by cuts in the goods and services tax rates. The impact of subdued rainfall on food p...