New Delhi, Oct. 8 -- Stock and bond markets are telling very different stories about near-term risk.

Stock investors want earnings growth, profit margin expansion, and smart capital spending. Bond investors want their money back, without inflation redoing its value, and not much else.

But the two markets often look to each other for signals on the next big move, even if they're focused on different catalysts. They typically don't diverge much in their assessment of near-term risks.

Today's market, however, is different.

The stock market's go-to gauge of near-term volatility, the Cboe Global Markets' Cboe Volatility Index, is hovering near its lowest levels of the year. It's tumbled nearly 50% since concerns about the U.S.-Iran war-and...