New Delhi, April 2 -- The share prices of domestic steel producers have fallen 8-12% since the onset of the West Asia war, mirroring broader market weakness. Yet, the March quarter (Q4FY26) may tell a different story.

Higher domestic prices-aided by safeguard duties on imports-alongside robust demand and improved spreads are expected to support strong earnings for steelmakers.

Domestic steel prices have climbed sharply following the imposition of safeguard duty on imports in December. The war has further disrupted key trade routes, lifting freight costs and, along with rupee depreciation, increasing the pressure on imports.

The spot price of hot rolled coil (HRC) has risen about 22% over its Q3FY26 average to Rs.57,700 per tonne, but s...