New Delhi, March 17 -- Indian equities are off to one of their worst starts in decades in 2026, as rising oil prices amid the West Asia conflict threaten to weigh on corporate earnings. The Sensex has fallen 11.4% between 1 January and 16 March, marking its fifth-worst start to a year in the past 47 years, according to Mint's analysis of historical data.

Nomura recently projected that Indian equities could end the year in the red if crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, driven by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts estimate that every $10 increase in crude prices could widen the deficit by roughly $20 billion, or about 0.5% of GDP.

The brokerage also expects a potential 10-15% downside to FY27 earnings estimates f...