New Delhi, April 6 -- As the monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India meets for its decision on 8 April, geopolitics has moved from being a peripheral risk to being the centre of the macro landscape. The West Asia conflict has disrupted energy and logistics flows, with spillovers via oil, gas, fertilizers, freight, insurance, and even remittances as traffic around the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. In such unsettling times, the traditional baselines have become blurry, with RBI's predominant task shifting more towards safeguarding macro and financial stability as tail risks increase.

Severe trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have triggered broad spillovers across energy and related commodities. Although t...