New Delhi, June 18 -- Over the last decade, we have been steadily refining our understanding of the impact of weather on the economy. Our latest findings suggest that it's time to get prepared for rising inflation and softening growth.

A couple of years ago, we pointed out that reservoir levels matter more than rains for India's food production and inflation, as they capture underground water as well. More recently, we advanced our analysis from rains and reservoirs to temperatures.

With global warming, average temperatures have crossed previous thresholds. As we explain later, they now impact the broader food basket and inflation much more than even rains and reservoirs do. In fact, we find that tracking surface temperature is enough t...