New Delhi, April 29 -- The International Monetary Fund in its recent spring meeting abandoned its single global growth forecast. It now presents three scenarios: 3.1% growth with 4.4% inflation, 2.5% growth with 5.4% inflation, or 2% growth with inflation above 6%, depending on how long the Strait of Hormuz stays shut.

The International Energy Agency has called the 2026 disruption the worst energy shock the world has ever seen. Every such moment in history has belonged to countries that treated it as an inflection point rather than just an emergency.

In 1973, Japan pivoted to a manufacturing base re-engineered around fuel efficiency, led by its ministry of international trade and industry, in response to an oil shock. Korea's 1973 heavy...