New Delhi, May 3 -- Since the war broke out in West Asia on 28 February, crude oil prices have surged to above $120 per barrel - a four-year high - up sharply from around $73 before hostilities began. The price hike has sent ripples across India's import bill, with rising petroleum and fertiliser costs threatening both the fiscal math and consumer prices.

India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran warned that a below-normal monsoon combined with a pass-through of higher energy prices could trigger a "potential inflation spike" in the months ahead - a double blow to households already feeling the pinch at the pump.

Nageswaran identified four distinct channels through which the West Asia conflict is hitting India -- price a...