New Delhi, July 6 -- A weak southwest monsoon could spike India's inflation to 5.1% in FY27, hurt rural demand and put pressure on sectors ranging from agriculture and microfinance to tractors and two-wheelers, even as the broader economy and banking system remain resilient, S&P Global Ratings said in a report released on Monday.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the 2026 southwest monsoon at around 90% of the long-period average (LPA), while emerging El Niño conditions are likely to intensify during the season, raising the risk of deficient and uneven rainfall.

The twin impact of weak rains and rising agricultural input costs due to geopolitical tensions could hurt farm incomes, lift food prices and slow rural cons...