New Delhi, March 2 -- The war in Iran has led to a worst-case scenario for the oil market: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows. A prolonged closure could send international oil prices $100 a barrel, a level they haven't hit since 2022.

The Strait, the most important oil-shipping route from the Middle East to Asia and elsewhere, doesn't appear to be formally closed, but insurers have vowed to cancel policies for tankers traversing it. On Saturday, about 4 million barrels of crude made it through-virtually all of Iranian origin, according to JP Morgan strategist Natasha Kaneva. Normally, about 16 million barrels of crude move through the Strait a day, she writes.

Wood Mackenzie analyst Alan Geld...